By Donald M. Street Jr.
After being caught on the north side of St. Martin by late season hurricane Klaus in mid-November 1984, and surviving by using six of Iolaire’s seven anchors (www.street-iolaire.com, “Surviving Klaus”), I decided that I had to do some research. Klaus was the first hurricane anyone could remember that headed northeast in the low latitudes.
In the NOAA book, Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1871 to 1998, I studied the tracks of all hurricanes that hit the islands of the eastern Caribbean.
I found that all hurricanes or potential hurricanes approach the Caribbean from the Cape Verde area and that as long as they stay south of 19 north, they track westward, never altering course more than five degrees in 24 hours. With very few exceptions all alterations of course were to the north. If a hurricane took a zig to the south, it seldom held to that track for more than 48 hours.
Irma in 2017 was different. Irma went to 19°06’N then took a turn five degrees south of due west for three days. She was only the second hurricane since 1851 to head south for three days before turning west and then northwest, and the first since 1851 to go above 19 N and then head south.
In light of this, it becomes easier to guess where hurricanes will hit the islands of the eastern Caribbean. As they approach the Caribbean, hurricanes are usually small in diameter, but often very intense. Dominica has been destroyed twice in recent times (Luis in 1995 and Marie in 2017), yet in both cases the south end of Guadeloupe and the north end of Martinique did not suffer major damage.
Once the hurricanes pass the Windward Islands, or north of the islands to the warm water of the Bahamas, they usually increase in intensity and size, sometimes with disastrous effect. Once in or north of the Caribbean, their tracks are hard to predict.
After the hurricane disasters of 2017 I obtained the new NOAA hurricane book that covered the tracks of all hurricanes from 1851 to 2006 with updates through 2017, which confirmed what I have stated above.
Eastern Puerto Rico has seen 14 hurricanes between 1851 and 2017. All recent hurricanes have been total disasters to boats stored ashore and major disasters to boats in marinas and boats that fled to so-called “hurricane holes.” There are no real hurricane holes; they are all too crowded.
The devastation done by Irma and Maria in the Virgin Islands is fresh in everyone’s memory and should be enough to make anyone think twice about being there for another direct hit.
St. Martin saw 21 hurricanes between 1851 and 2017, three of them in 1933. All recent hurricanes have been total disasters in Simpson Bay Lagoon and Oyster Pond, which were overcrowded with boats, not all of which were anchored well. Ashore, there were disasters everywhere, except in Bobby’s Boatyard, where boats were stored in heavy wooden cradles with their masts out.
Antigua saw hits from 17 hurricanes between 1851 and 2017. English Harbour is very much overrated as a hurricane hole for the reasons stated above. Again, you may be rigorous in preparing your boat to survive a hurricane, but the same cannot be said of every skipper.
Martinique was threatened by 20 hurricanes between 1851 and 2017, but amazingly, all the hurricanes’ centers have passed north or south of the island; none have scored a direct hit. If a hurricane does score a direct hit on Du Marin, losses will be catastrophic. In March 2023 I visited both Du Marin and Saint Anne and was astounded by the number of yachts there since I last visited the area immediately before the pandemic.
St. Lucia has had brushes with 17 hurricanes between 1851 and 2017, none of which have caused major damage. Centers have been either north or south, luckily doing no major damage to the yachting sector.
You shouldn’t feel safe from hurricanes in the Grenadines. They’ve seen 24 hurricanes from 1851 to 2017 and there is nowhere to hide in the Grenadines.
Grenada was hit dead on by hurricanes in 1856, 1955, and 2004. It was brushed by hurricanes in 1877 and 2005. In 2022 Tropical Storm Gonzalo passed south of Grenada. In 1963 a tropical storm passed south of Grenada and developed into a hurricane. Later it stalled for three days over the eastern end of Cuba — Castro blamed the United States for causing it to stall!
Trinidad saw no hurricanes during the period, but five tropical storms hit the south end of the island.
Hurricanes very occasionally form in the Eastern Caribbean and head east. For example, in 1954 Alex did so in late December/early January, and Klaus moved east hitting St. Martin in November 1984. All were late-season hurricanes, and their tracks were impossible to predict.
The lesson is to treat hurricanes with extreme caution and be aware that they can and do occur late in the season. If you keep your boat in a yard for the summer, your best chance for survival is to pull the mast and have the boat well-braced with the keel in a “well.” If you’re in the water, note that your main problem is going to be all the other boats in your so-called hurricane hole.
For more information consult www.street-iolaire.com. Andrew Burton, offshore sailor and delivery skipper (sites.google.com/site/andrewburtonyachtservices), assisted with this article.
