by Bill Woodroffe
Some once said — I think it was me, that the amount of fun you can have is inversely proportional to the amount of clothing you must wear. Sliding down a snow cover mountain wearing five layers of clothes, two hoods, goggles, extra thick mittens, boots of Spanish leather and plastic, where the sun only shines on the tip of your nose is not my idea of fun. Beaches and the warm soothing water of the ocean are my cup of tea. Minimal clothing, maximum fun.
There is no mystery why cruisers and visitors come to the Caribbean in the winter. Freezing temperatures and even snow in Florida are really good reasons! We are no different, although our cutoff for low temperatures is higher, close to 21 C (70 F). Temperatures below that, we go south.
This is why for the last 13 years my wife and I have been in the Caribbean in the winter. We also keep our boat, Kalunamoo, in Trinidad for hurricane season in the summer. We leave Trinidad in November and spend the rest of the season in the eastern Caribbean between the Virgins and Grenada. The warm weather is the draw, but of course, there are also many other reasons to visit or stay in the Caribbean.
Given the cold snaps and reports of record snows up north, some skeptics question the notion of a worldwide warmer climate. The argument against the reality of climate change is hard to make. However, given my preference for warm water, I ask, “how warm is the water?”
“Between 1993 and 2022, the amount of heat energy absorbed by the ocean was more than 800 times the total electricity consumed by the United States in just 2022 – the year with the highest energy use recorded.” https://globalocean.noaa.gov/the-ocean/ocean-heat/
When we sailed up to Antigua in November we definitely noticed how unusually warm the ocean and air seemed compared to the last few years. Trinidad is hot and by November even we look forward to the “cooler” temperatures “up north” toward St. Martin. Since all the islands sit in this big pool of ocean water, air and water temperatures are firmly coupled to each other. And so I took a closer look at water temperatures here in the Caribbean to verify our observation.
The topic of climate change is not new and many articles and reports of its evidence and effects have been published and are easily found on the web. Here in the Caribbean, these concerns include: the effects of sea level rise and how that will affect shorelines; how warmer sea temperatures will affect sea life and corals; and what effects changing energy production brings.
Of particular interest to cruisers is how hurricanes and storms may change due to changes in climate.
A look back to 2024 is interesting. The 2024 season, by most projections, including by the U.S. National Hurricane Center, projected an “above average” season. The reasons given were multiple, as no one single parameter can be used to predict future weather or climate. But one major factor was the warmer ocean temperatures. Worldwide ocean temperatures have been in the news and so a closer look at that and the impact of that in the Caribbean is warranted.
Both the surface, near surface and deep-sea temperatures are monitored worldwide in a variety of ways. NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing program (GOMO) measures ocean temperatures with direct multiple sensors and vessel reports. NASA records surface temperatures continually via satellites. https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5101. The results of these measurements clearly show the warming of the oceans, including the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. These two areas are directly east and west of the Lesser Antilles. These confirmed our own observations.
When we left Trinidad, in November, the water temperature as measured by our Raymarine speed transducer was 30.8 C (87.5 F). When we arrived in Antigua mid-November, and along the way, it was about the same temperature. That was much warmer than I remembered in previous years. Even the air temperature seemed warmer than in years past. In December, the water temperature slowly dropped and by mid-January it was 27.9 C (82.3 F) in Antigua. These antidotal temperature readings did confirm our feelings of much warmer conditions than previous years.
As seen in the accompanying temperature graphs, the average temperature for all oceans (60N to 60S) in 2024 was about 0.5 C higher than the recorded records since 1981. The Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes was about 1.0 C higher than the recorded records (last 43 years). The average absolute temperature differences don’t seem impressive. One degree C (1.56 F) seems inconsequential. But the additional energy or OHC (Ocean Heat Content) that is represented in that small temperature difference is tremendous. It is that additional energy that is available to hurricanes and storms that keeps hurricane predictors up at night.
Why are the oceans warmer? The simple answer is that the air is warmer because the oceans act as a reservoir of atmospheric heat. It is a complex relationship, as any climate scientist will tell you. But there is no mistaking the recent trends. The oceans, including the Caribbean waters, are getting warmer.
That sounds like good news to me. I love warm water! However, as with much in life, too much of a good thing may not be good. Will the oceans become like the waters off Bouillante in Guadeloupe? You don’t need a hot tub there! Just step into the ocean waters warmed by the thermal spring that powers the electric generating plant there!
In the meantime, I’ll enjoy the Caribbean waters and leave my heavy clothing to others.
Compass contributor Bill Woodroffe holds a BS degree in meteorology from the State University New York Maritime College, sailed as a deck officer in the US Merchant Marine, and now sails with his wife aboard their 47-foot ketch SV Kalunamoo throughout the islands of the Eastern Caribbean. He can be reached at whwsailboat@gmail.com.
